Speaker: Dr. D. Marc Kilgour
Professor of Mathematics
Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada
D. Marc Kilgour is Professor of Mathematics at Wilfrid Laurier University,
Research Director:Conflict Analysis for the Laurier Centre for Military
Strategic and Disarmament Studies, and Adjunct Professor of
Systems Design Engineering at University of Waterloo.
Conflict Analysis is a set of principles and techniques to model and analyze
strategic conflicts, or multi-person, multi-objective decision problems. The
game-theory-related techniques are all based on the principle that actors are
purposive. Among them, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution stands out
for the simplicity and flexibility of its models and the breadth of its analysis.
This presentation shows the remarkable development of the Graph Model
since its first publication in 1987.
The graph model system is prescriptive, aiming to provide a specific decision-
maker with useful strategic insights. The basics of the Graph Model are
described in detail, using real-life conflicts as illustrations. Then more recent
developments are discussed, including
- added flexibility in modeling, including multi-level preference and uncertain,
fuzzy, and grey preference,
- new analysis techniques using matrix methods,
- the development of post-analysis procedures, including coalition analysis and
status quo analysis
- Inverse GMCR, a procedure to advise disputants and mediators.
The newest Decision Support System, GMCR+, with its strong visualization
components, will be used to illustrate these ideas. A brief concluding look to
the future will show that the next generation of decision support based on
the Graph Model will be even more comprehensive and even more powerful.
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